The Secret of the Gamblers Fallacy

Top Play: Tenn/Flroida UNDER 49

OK, looks like the number has crested at 49, and is beginning to drop, I’m jumping on the under 49 as my Top Play

In my opinion, this number is simply too high with 2 very good defenses, along with Tennessee’s QB issues, and the fact that I believe life could be hard for Florida QB Leak with an unproven O-Line in front of him.

Gameplans

Tennessee’s gameplan is the key to this total, a steady diet of RB Riggs on offense. I expect Fulmer to pound it, pound it, pound it with Riggs and pass when need be, or at opprotune times.

Defensively, I expect the Vols D-line is be able to put pressure on Leak without having to send the house, similar to what they were able to do two years ago. Florida coach Meyer understands that his Gators must be able to establish some sort of running game, to open it up for Leak. And I’m not convinced they can run it with any sort of effectiveness against this stout Vols front seven. 메이저놀이터

The word on Florida’s D

On defense, Florida’s guys have been impressive, albeit against inferior offenses. Luckily for their unproven secondary, Tennessee’s QB situation is a little bit of a question mark. As I stated earlier, they can expect to see a whole lot of Gerald Riggs in this big rivalry game.

Top Play: UF/UT UNDER 49

Regular Play: Wisconsin -3 over UNC
This game would be a bigger play if this were at Wisconsin, but I will tread a little lighter with the Badgers hitting the road for the first time this season.

Looks like the linesmakers are giving the Tar Heels credit for almost upsetting G Tech on the road last week, but I won’t The Jackets beat Auburn in a huge win on the road a week before, and I really question their motivation for this one, even though it was their conference opener. Chan Gailey’s play calling in the fourth quarter also left a lot to be desired. I have no explanation as to why he didn’t keep feeding the ball to P.J. Daniels.

Well, Barry Alvarez WILL feed the ball to his top runners, Calhoun and Booker, and do it often. Stocco looks like he’s improved tremendously, even though the opposing secondaries he’s faced thus far have left a lot to be desired.

NC has been outgained tremendously in their first two games, but I will give coach Bunting credit for playing a tough Boston College team to open up.

Key matchup: Wiscy D-Line vs. UNC O-line

This is where the game could be decided, as UNC is still shuffling to get the right combonation along the offensive line, which means they’ll struggle to run the ball, and will have to take advantage of the Badgers secondary.

Wisconsin’s secondary has been a point of criticism, but they loked much better in the 2nd half of the Bowling Green game, and UNC QB Baker is hardly in the league of Omar Jacobs. When G Tech got down to business on D vs. UNC, they intercepted Baker 3 times in the 4th quarter.

He can’t win this game with his arm. I believe the Badgers D will force Baker to make some bad decisions on Saturday.

Offensively, with Stocoo improving thanks to the blocking of the offensive line and the strong running game, Wiscy should once again put up some big numbers vs. this below average Tar Heels defense. The longer the game goes, the more they will wear them out.

Regular play: Wisconsin -3

Small play: Notre Dame -6 1/2 over Mich State

I know many are wary of a big let down after the road victiories, especially the upset win over Michigan at Ann Arbor, but I feel they’ll be energized to be coming back to South Bend for the home opener. Paticularly, since the foe they are facing, Michigan State, are playing their first road game after two easy home tuneups.

This will be the Spartans first real test, and it’s not a good spot, in my opinion. This is a HUGE step up in competition on both sides of the ball, and they could get shellshocked early, as ND has opened up strong in both of their first two games.

Spartans QB Stanton looks improved, and is a great athlete, but if his team is playing from behind all day, he could become the inconsistent guy we saw in 2004.

Notre Dame is tons more physical than anything Michigan State has seen thus far, and if they get smacked in the mouth a couple times, they may not recover. ND goes to 3-0 after this one.

 

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